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Transition Roseland - responding to the challenges and opportunities of Climate Change.
Change happens whether we like it or not – and a planned response to changes in our weather and climate will leave us in a much stronger position to become sustainable aas a community than if we wait until change is upon us.
Transition Roseland believes in local involvement - and phenology is one way in which you can join in collecting information, whether you are out and about or just have a view of a garden from your window!
Lots of people are talking about 'Copenhagen' - whats it all about? We've done the hard work for you - take a look at our 'What are the green house effect and global warming and what can we expect in the Roseland?' and 'About COP 15' sections.
Helping to record climate change – phenology networks.
Climate change is a slow process and to monitor important effects of climate change you don’t need scientific equipment, just time to look around you and watch out for when specific things happen. This observation and monitoring of the timing of natural events is known as phenology. It forms the basis of many of the calculations as to what changes are happening, how fast and what - if anything - needs to be done to support species [including commercial crops and fisheries] and habitats.
  
The Woodland Trust has taken responsibility for one of the largest monitoring projects in the UK. Have a look at its web site on
http://www.naturescalendar.org.uk.
To give you some examples of what and how to record, this autumn those joining in are asked to record the dates of events such as
When all the leaves on a tree have changed colour – full autumn colouring.
[· Use mature trees (30 years old or more), as young trees show different responses. Even trees of the same species, close to each other can behave very differently.
· If you are finding it difficult to decide when to record, wait until the event is occurring in three trees of the same species in close proximity to each other. Record the trendsetters rather than the extraordinary.
· In dry summers some species such as beech and birch may show the effects of drought, which can be confused with the onset of autumn.These include early colour changes and shrivelling and falling of leaves. Record the date you see first tint whatever the cause.]
or
Completely bare tree except for shrivelled leaves
[· Use mature trees (30 years old or more), as young trees show different responses. Even trees of the same species, close to each other can behave very differently.
· If you are finding it difficult to decide when to record, wait until the event is occurring in three trees of the same species in close proximity to each other. Record the trendsetters rather than the extraordinary.
· Leaves may fall off before you have recorded any significant colour change.This may be the species or the weather conditions. Don’t worry! Just record when the tree is bare.]
It doesn’t take long, it’s easy because [as shown above] you are given lots of help, you watch for as few or as many events as you can be bothered to do, yet even if you only record one event you know you are part of a huge survey.
The more people that take part, the more reliable the results.
Go on, get on the website and have a go!
What are 'the greenhouse effect' and 'global warming' and what can we expect in the Roseland?
The greenhouse effect is a natural mechanism that retains the heat emitted from the earth’s surface. The earth’s average temperature is at the moment around 14 degrees Celsius (57 degrees Fahrenheit). If the natural greenhouse effect did not exist, the average temperature would be around minus 19 degrees Celsius (minus 2 degrees Fahrenheit). So we need it!
Global warming - The most recent assessment report from the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says that the earth’s average temperature has risen by 0.74 degrees in the period from 1906 to 2005, and that the average temperature will continue to rise.
 The greenhouse effect is caused by a range of different gases in the earth’s atmosphere. Water vapour makes the most significant contribution to the greenhouse effect, followed by CO2. The atmospheric content of greenhouse gases – in particular CO2 – and the consequences for the climate are being discussed because the content of these gases in the atmosphere has risen precipitously in a period covering approximately the latest 250 years, and especially the last 50.
At present the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is about 385 ppm (parts per million). Before industrialization it was about 280 ppm. Analyses of air contained in ice from the Antarctic ice cap show that there is far more CO2 in the air today than at any time in the last 650,000 years.
The consequence is that the greenhouse effect is becoming stronger, and therefore the earth is becoming warmer. How much warmer has, however, been a matter of dispute. The most recent assessment report from the IPCC is from 2007. It concludes that the earth’s average temperature has risen by 0.74 degrees in the period from 1906 to 2005. The warming is stronger over land areas than over the sea, and accordingly it is strongest in the northern hemisphere. At the same time occurrences of heat waves and violent downpours have also increased, the oceans have risen, and the ice at the world’s poles and on its mountains has begun to melt. All of these effects are predictable in the event of global warming.
The IPCC’s most recent assessment report concludes that the average temperature will continue to rise, but that the extent and the duration of this rise, and the severity of its consequences, depend on how quickly and how effectively emissions of greenhouse gases can be restricted and, over time, reduced.
Many of the effects of global warming have been well-documented. It is the precise extent that is difficult to predict.
Firstly, because the natural processes that cause precipitation, storms, increases in sea level and other expected effects of global warming are dependent on many different factors.
Secondly, because it is difficult to predict the size of the emissions of greenhouse gases in the coming decades, because this is determined to a great extent by political decisions and technological breakthroughs.
Observations from real life are very much consistent with predictions.
Among the effects that can be predicted and are likely to impact directly on our local area are:
More droughts and more flooding: When the weather gets warmer, evaporation from both land and sea increases. The extra water vapor in the atmosphere has to fall again as extra precipitation, which can cause flooding other places in the world. The Roseland is especially vulnerable to flood events, as we are all only too aware. Both local geology and increasing areas of hard surfaces such as tarmac and concrete encourage 'overland flow' rather than the sinking of rainwater into the soil.
More extreme weather incidents: The warmer climate will most probably cause more heatwaves, more cases of heavy rainfall and also possibly an increase in the number and/or severity of storms. This is already having an impact on the economy of the Roseland, especially for those involved in farming, fishing or the leisure trade.
Rising sea level: The sea level rises for two reasons. Partly because of the melting ice and snow, and partly because of the thermal expansion of the sea. The melting ice caps are already having an effect. Thermal expansion takes a long time, but even an increase in temperature of two degrees Celsius is expected, in due time, to cause a rise in the water level of almost a metre. Already, the rise in sea-level in the Baltic is reckoned to be 1 metre in every 100 years. It may very well be more than this. Villages with housing and facilities close to the sea-shore, such as St. Mawes and Porthscatho will definitely have to face this challenge.
 
In order to get an idea of the extent of the consequences of climate change, researchers typically work with scenarios that show various possible developments, which is why you find different values quoted but the trends do not vary. Much of the basic information comes from the COP 15 web site [see below].
About COP 15 – that Copenhagen conference!
[with 'edited highlights' from their web site [http://en.cop15.dk]
 COP15 – the crucial conference
In 1990, the United Nations General Assembly decided to start work on a climate change convention. The endeavors led to 154 countries signing the United Nations Framework Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) at the UN Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. Since then, 192 countries including the USA have ratified the convention.
The goals of the climate change convention are to stabilize the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that prevents dangerous man-made climate changes.
This stabilization must occur in such a way as to give ecosystems the opportunity to adapt naturally. This means that food safety must not be compromised, and that the potential to create sustainable social and economic development must not be endangered.
Each year, a Conference of the Parties [COP] is held, where the countries which have ratified the convention meet and discuss how the convention’s goals can be implemented in practice. One of the tools, which the parties have agreed upon, is the Kyoto Protocol.
The climate change convention is administered by the United Nations Climate Change Secretariat in Bonn. The secretariat’s tasks include monitoring the development in the individual countries’ CO2 emissions, as well as keeping watch on which countries ratify the Kyoto Protocol.
The Kyoto Protocol operates with three flexible mechanisms:
International Emissions Trading: The 37 countries that are in the Kyoto Protocol have set targets for the quantity of greenhouse gases they are allowed to emit. They are able to trade these emissions permits among themselves. If a country has a surplus of these “CO2 quotas” because it has switched to a cleaner form of economy, it can sell them to one of the other countries.
Clean Development Mechanisms and Joint Implementation: Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) are mechanisms whose purpose is to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases in concrete projects and at the same time to promote climate initiatives and sustainable development in developing countries. The projects generate CO2 credits that correspond to the reduction in greenhouse gases achieved by the project. The country that is hosting the JI or CDM project can sell the credits it obtains to companies or industrialised countries.
In 2007, in Bali, all parties agreed on the Bali Action Plan, including the working conditions for the negotiations up to COP15 in Copenhagen. It was partly a growing acknowledgement of the fact that 2009 represents more or less the last chance to achieve an agreement, if this agreement is to be approved and ratified in time for it to come into force after the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012.
Those attending COP 15 will include national delegations, NGOs and 'observer organisations' such as the UN. There will be a lot of networking going on in the corridors of the Bella Centre in Copenhagen during December 7-18, even though most delegates will only attend for part of the time!
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Agenda: The next meeting wll be on November 12th. We shall be following up on our discussions about renewable energy for the Roseland and an enlarged, more frequently updated [we hope!] web site click here.
Allotments: At last, permission has been granted for Nick and Barbara Michell of Barwick Farm, Tregony to have a selection of allotmentson their land. To apply for one of the plots, please click here to download an application form. Alternatively, Email us and we'll send you one.
Would you like to know how to save up to £75 a year on electricity and still use appliances at your current rate? Email us to find out how.
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